Monsoon leaves behind a trail of happy numbers
MANIKA PREMSINGH/ETIG
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2003 09:54:28 PM ]

The monsoon season may be over for the year, but it has left behind a feel-good factor for the economy. The South-West monsoon of ’03 was marked by near-normal rainfall over the country, distributed equitably over both space and time. This has resulted in raising water levels in major reservoirs across the country and ensured a good agricultural output. Inflation trends have shown an overall decline over the period, which is partly attributed to falling primary articles inflation. Food articles inflation, a component of primary articles inflation, has shown the lowest rates in the season.

Rainfall trends over the season: For the country as a whole, the total rainfall from June 1 to September 30, ’03 was 102% of its Long Period Average (LPA). This is the second highest amount of rainfall received by the country in the last ten years, the highest being in 1994, when it was 110% of LPA. Region-wise, north-west experienced highest rainfall at 102% of LPA, peninsular India was second, followed by north-east India at 99% of LPA.

In terms of meteorological sub-divisions, good monsoon gets reflected in the fact that 33 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions received normal to excess rainfall. Of these, 7 sub-divisions registered excess rainfall, 26 had normal rainfall, and only 3 sub-divisions received deficient rainfall. South Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala received deficient rainfall, while Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and parts of Uttar Pradesh witnessed excess rains.

Inflation trends: Inflation rates based on Wholesale Production Index (WPI) have shown a continuous fall from the beginning of the current fiscal. Monthly inflation was at 6.7% in April, which reduced to approximately 4% in August. Primary inflation came down from 7% at the start of the fiscal to about 3% at the end of August. This is primarily due to declining food articles inflation, wh- ich has even recorded negative growth for six weeks over the monsoon. However, there are signs of a pick-up in inflation rates.

Reservoir status: Live storage of 71 important reservoirs, with a Full Reservoir Level of 131.3bn cubic meters for the season is about 79% of total reservoir capacity. The present total water storage is 113% of last year’s level and 81% of the last 10 years’ average.