Will
the monsoons...?
As
the season advances, the Indian agricultural sector looks towards
the sky, hoping to gain respite from the vagaries of
Indian monsoons, observes Binny Sabharwal
It
all started with the ‘Southwest Monsoon on track’, an article in The
Times of India on May 16, 2003, that gave the first prediction by
the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for Monsoons 2003, which
said that the monsoons was ‘en route and was progressing normally’.
Since then the Southwest monsoon has changed its course umpteen times
and its every move has been qualified and reported through a plethora
of figuratively christened news items appearing in all publications.
Some prime examples being: ‘Will rain gods pour their blessings this
year’, ‘IMD shy of taking risks refuses to give monsoon dates’, ‘Monsoon:
Met keeps fingers crossed’ and ‘Monsoons delayed, Delhi gets hotter’.
These
examples clearly indicate that the Southwest monsoon has again betrayed
the Met department. The winds that conspicuously proclaimed to be
moisture laden and rain bearing in mid -May turned hostile and the
outcome is that the much awaited monsoon hit the Kerala coast on June
8, a week later than its usual date of arrival. What followed in between
was another saga of woe, despair and longing for a rain-laden year.
The Met department was highly forthcoming in responding that the one-week
delay in the onset of the monsoons would not have an adverse affect
on life across the country.
The
case in point here is that how exactly would this delay affect crop
production. With the sowing of sugarcane and jute underway, what would
be the effects of this inconsistent rain pattern in 2003? But nobody
seems to have the answers.
The
agriculture sector, still reeling from last year’s drought, has already
witnessed a 13.6 per cent fall in food grain output this year. And
despite the government’s decision to waive interest on crop credits,
farmers in 17 states have been pushed to subsistence levels and in
some cases also suicide.
The
Planning Commission believes that farmers will need at least three
years of bountiful monsoons to recover from the fifth consecutive
year of drought. It says that the economic fallout of yet another
drought would be catastrophic: The Tenth Plan’s targeted growth rate
of eight per cent will simply not be achievable if this monsoon fails.
And the trickle down effect of another rain-starved year would put
recovery back by a few years.
The
desperation and frustration over a good rainfall is understandable.
Even after 55 years of independence, 25 per cent of India’s GDP comes
from the farm sector and 70 per cent of the population derives sustenance
from agriculture. In case of a less than normal monsoon this year,....
contd...
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