NEW DELHI: A leading think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has warned that unless real policy actions are taken, four per cent targeted growth in agriculture on a sustained basis cannot be achieved.

It also hit out at the centre for the measures announced in the budget which it said "impart an element of scepticism for the future growth of the agricultural sector". The council described the food management system as a major "Achilles' heel"

In its latest review of the economy, it said, "If" the monsoon turns out to be normal including its distribution in space and time, the sector should witness higher growth this year but a clear and more compelling message from the centre is a must to achieve the four per cent sustained targeted growth in agriculture.”

Significantly, the meteorological department has forecast a below normal monsoon in 2003 with new models indicating 39 per cent probability of below normal rainfall and 21 per cent probability of drought.

NCAER has also expressed concern over the mountain of foodstocks saying rather than being a sign of comfort they are a sign of worry with wheat and rabi rice produced in 2002- 03 to add to the inventory.

It said despite a drought-hit fall in output of rice and wheat, prices declined due to more than comfortable level of government stocks.

Almost all the measures outlined in the budget, except for credit, are in the "nature of grand intentions that still require concrete steps to be spelt out, it added.

Diversification has become a major agenda item in all the discourses on agriculture including the budget speech, but very little is done in real policy terms, it said.

PTI[ SUNDAY, APRIL 20, 2003 10:27:13 AM ]